By HC Green May 10, 2022 7:39 pm
By HC Green | May 10, 2022 7:39 pm ET
The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.
The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.
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For the fourth consecutive season, Greg Roman will handle the offensive coordinator duties under longtime head coach John Harbaugh, so expect a continuation of the run-heavy approach that has landed Baltimore in the NFL’s top three in rushing attempts in each of Roman’s three seasons.
On defense, Don Martindale was ushered out and replaced by Mike Macdonald. The 34-year-old spent seven seasons in Baltimore before serving as the defensive coordinator at Michigan under Harbaugh’s brother in 2021.
Without question, Roman’s top priority for 2022 is getting Lamar Jackson back at an MVP level after he scuffled through a middling campaign that saw him throw almost as many INTs (13) as TDs (16) before missing the final five games with an ankle injury.
While Jackson remains the preeminent rushing threat at the position, his touchdowns and YPC dipped last year, which is something to watch. Jackson isn’t as airtight an option as in years past, but he’s still a top-five fantasy QB.
In case you scrubbed it from your memory, the Ravens endured a brutal stretch of bad luck in their backfield with J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill all suffering season-ending injuries in roughly a two-week span. The silver lining is that all three injuries occurred early on, creating hope they could all be ready to roll in Week 1. Their returns mean last year’s leading rushers, Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray, will likely seek employment elsewhere.
Of the returnees, Dobbins is clearly the most talented. He amassed 925 total yards and nine TDs in part-time duty as a rookie, averaging 6.0 YPC in the process. Baltimore has typically favored a committee approach — Justin Forsett was the last back to top 220 carries and 1,100 yards in a season back in 2014 — but Dobbins may be so talented that the club feels obligated to feature him more prominently. He’s an RB2 with some juice.
Edwards averaged 717 yards rushing in three full seasons and is a nice complement to Dobbins, though the Rutgers alum is a nonfactor in the passing game. Edwards is a decent No. 4/RB5.
Ty’Son Williams flashed a time or two in 2021 but closed out the year in the doghouse for poor pass blocking and had his restricted tender offer revoked, making him a free agent.
Hill, veteran Mike Davis, and rookie Tyler Badie will battle for position further down the depth chart.
Baltimore jettisoned No. 1 receiver Marquise Brown (91-1,008-6) on draft day, and they allowed veteran Sammy Watkins (27-394-1) to depart in free agency, leaving the cupboard a bit barren for the time being — the pair ranked second and fourth, respectively, in receiving yardage for the Ravens in 2021.
Their departures thrust second-year pro Rashod Bateman (46-515-1) into the top spot on the outside. Bateman missed the first five games of his rookie season with a groin injury, but he flashed his first-round talent upon returning and is an interesting WR3 candidate.
After that, look for some combination of Devin Duvernay (33-272-2), James Proche (20-202-0), and Tylan Wallace (2-23-0) to start opposite Bateman and work as the slot receiver. Of that group, Duvernay appears the closest to fantasy relevance. The Pro Bowl return specialist is dangerous in the open field and has the speed to run past defensive backs. Those in larger leagues could consider Duvernay as a flier in the final rounds.
Except for Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, you’d be hard pressed to even make an argument for the No. 1 fantasy tight end heading into 2022 other than Mark Andrews. He easily led the team in receptions (107), receiving yards (1,361) and TDs (9) last year, and heading into his age-27 season he should be in his prime — conversely, Kelce turns 33 in October. The durable Andrews will be the top target in Baltimore’s passing game and an elite fantasy option.
A year ago, people were anticipating a monster season from Dobbins … then he tore his ACL and missed the entire season. Memories are often short in the “what have you done for me lately” world of fantasy football. You’d do well to remember Dobbins come draft day.
With Bateman thrust into the top spot outside, expectations are likely to be high. Maybe too high. Prior to Brown posting 1,008 yards receiving last year, the Ravens hadn’t had a wideout gain more than 800 yards in a season since Mike Wallace in 2016. It’s not that Bateman will be a disaster, but his hype train following Hollywood’s trade forecasts an overvalued commodity.
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What a difference a year makes. Entering last season, Zac Taylor was among the favorites to be fired. Fast forward 12 months and he’s coming off an AFC Championship that netted him a contract extension through 2026. Brian Callahan is back for a fourth year as offensive coordinator, though, like other head coaches from the Sean McVay tree, Taylor calls the plays. Lou Anarumo still runs the defense.
While there were certainly encouraging signs during Joe Burrow‘s injury-shortened rookie season, his ascension to superstar status was anything but guaranteed entering his sophomore campaign. Ascend he did, however, immediately clicking with Ja’Marr Chase to form one of the NFL’s most electric connections en route to 4,611 yards and 34 TDs despite sitting out Week 18. While he isn’t much of a runner, Burrow should still deliver enough value with his arm to make Joe Shiesty a viable QB1 selection.
Coming off a disappointing and injury-filled 2020, Joe Mixon bounced back with his best season, setting career highs in carries (292), total yards (1,519) and touchdowns (16), all while battling through ankle trouble. It’s that last part that casts a bit of a pall over Mixon’s banner season, however, as the mileage has started to pile up. Granted, he’s been able to play through these “minor” injuries, but there should be modest durability concerns surrounding Mixon heading into his sixth season. Drafting him as an RB2 would mitigate those worries to some extent, but that’s unlikely to be a realistic scenario.
With RB Giovanni Bernard gone, Samaje Perine took over as the clear No. 2 back last year. The former Sooner had his moments, highlighted by back-to-back games with 70-plus yards in October, but his role petered out down the stretch. Perine is a handcuff option for Mixon owners but offers negligible standalone appeal.
Even with a seven-game stretch that saw him top 50 yards just twice, Ja’Marr Chase still walked away with the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year Award by posting an 81-1,455-13 line. He added another 368 yards in the postseason, further establishing himself as a legit No. 1 receiver. Chase and Tee Higgins (74-1,091-6) are already among the top tandems in the NFL with room to grow, which is a frightening thought for NFL secondaries. Higgins is a low-end WR2 candidate, whereas Chase is already in the top five players at the position.
While Chase and Higgins are ascending, veteran Tyler Boyd (67-828-5) is on the wane. A volume target in the dying days of the Andy Dalton era, Boyd is a tertiary option in the passing attack now, capable of the odd big game when defenses overcommit to stopping the other wideouts. He’d be a solid late-round choice for depth, though his days of weekly use now appear to be in the past.
C.J. Uzomah’s departure to the New York Jets leaves a hole in the passing game. To fill it, the Bengals will look to a combination of holdover Drew Sample and free-agent signee Hayden Hurst.
Collectively, the two of them caught 37 passes a season ago, but in 2020 they had a combined 96 catches, 920 yards and seven TDs (Sample with Cincinnati, and Hurst with the Atlanta Falcons). Suffice to say, the Bengals would be thrilled with that level of productivity, though neither player warrants fantasy attention at this stage in conventional leagues. Hurts has a whiff of appeal in best-ball settings, though.
Hurst was a first-round pick in 2018 and is just one season removed from a 56-571-6 effort for Atlanta. He appears more likely than Sample to step into the pass-catching role left vacant by the departure of Uzomah, who was an underrated presence last year.
When you factor in the playoffs, nobody had more touches last season than Mixon (419). By any era’s standards that’s a heavy workload, and we’ve seen numerous examples in recent years of elite fantasy backs fading quickly after overuse (e.g., Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, etc.). Caveat emptor.
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Coming off a season where they reached the AFC Divisional Round, the Browns were expected to be contenders last year. Instead, they finished below .500 and missed the playoffs.
The trio of head coach Kevin Stefanski, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, and defensive coordinator Joe Woods all return for a third season in Cleveland, however, as the blame was seemingly placed squarely on the shoulders of Baker Mayfield. With the acquisition of Deshaun Watson from the Houston Texans, expect a more diverse offensive attack in 2022.
There are two aspects to the Deshaun Watson addition. On the field, Watson is an immediate upgrade over Mayfield, having averaged 4,280 yards passing, 28 TDs and 9.3 INTs per year in his three full seasons — he’s also an underrated runner, posting 469 yards and five TDs per year on the ground during that stretch.
Off the field, it gets complicated. While Watson won’t face criminal charges, he’s facing civil action, which could still result in a suspension from the NFL, though there’s no timetable for such an action. That uncertainty makes Watson a high-risk, high-reward QB1.
Cleveland’s backfield duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is in the discussion for the NFL’s top pairing, though both players carry some level of injury risk. Chubb has missed seven games over the past two seasons with knee and calf injuries, while Hunt appeared in just eight games a year ago due to calf and ankle woes.
When both are healthy, Chubb is the early-down workhorse, and Hunt gets the nod in passing situations. In terms of production, Chubb leads the way, averaging 1,392 total yards and 9.75 TDs per season since entering the league in 2018. He’s a solid RB2. Hunt offers playable weekly upside but is more of a low-end RB3 or flex over the course of a full year.
Lurking behind that dynamic duo is D’Ernest Johnson, who delivered each time he got extended work, though the coaching staff shied away from using him whenever Chubb was available. That indicates they don’t view him through the same lens as Chubb or Hunt. He’ll need to hold off fifth-rounder Jerome Ford in camp for the No. 3 role.
Gone are Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, replaced with Amari Cooper, acquired in a trade from the Dallas Cowboys, and last year’s leading receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones.
Cooper has topped 1,000 yards four times in eight NFL seasons, though he amassed just 865 yards in 2021 after slipping behind CeeDee Lamb in Dallas’ pecking order. Cooper will be back atop the depth chart in Cleveland, however, and with Watson pulling the trigger the veteran has some nice rebound potential in his age-28 season. Target him as your WR3 with a chance to outperform that slot.
DPJ (34-597-3) was feast or famine last year, but, as noted, those 597 yards led the Browns. He’s shown the ability to get deep and make big plays. Next up is improving his consistency. If Peoples-Jones falters or regresses, look for Anthony Schwartz (10-135-1) or David Bell to get a chance at a larger role. Both are third-round picks, Schwartz in 2021 and Bell this year, with the former a burner and the latter considered an NFL-ready route runner. Of this group, only DPJ deserves flier consideration for now.
Despite very modest production, the Browns slapped the franchise tag on David Njoku (36-475-4), ensuring the former first-round pick will spend at least one more season in Cleveland. Njoku has always been long on talent but short on production with his 639 receiving yards in 2018 standing as his career best. Harrison Bryant factors in to a degree, but he’s more of a possible TD vulture than a regular pass-catching target. While the loss of Austin Hooper to the Tennessee Titans might create more chances for Njoku, he’s still best regarded as a fringe TE2.
Njoku seems as primed as anyone in Cleveland’s offense to level up in 2022. The Browns have only one proven pass catcher (two if you count Hunt), and the front office ponied up a lot of money to keep Njoku around. Plus, Watson is markedly better than Mayfield.
This must be Watson based solely on his murky legal situation. As of now it sounds as though that could drag into 2023, effectively pushing out any suspension in the process, but the reality is nobody knows if or when the NFL will hand down disciplinary action.
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It’s a transitional time in the Steel City to be sure, but Mike Tomlin will provide some stability as he enters his 16th season as head coach. Matt Canada returns for his second year as offensive coordinator, though with a lot of changes, including the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger, we’ll see how the game plan adjusts. Expect more misdirection aspects incorporated into the play designs, such as an increase in jet sweeps, RPOs, mesh routes, and pre-snap motions. Following the retirement of Keith Butler, Teryl Austin was promoted from secondary coach to defensive coordinator.
For the first time since 2003, Ben Roethlisberger won’t be on the Steelers roster. In the short term, Mitchell Trubisky could get the nod. Although the former No. 2 overall pick never lived up to his draft slot in Chicago, seeing that offense without him last year makes you wonder if success in that system was ever attainable.
His outlook for 2022 is clouded by the arrival of Kenny Pickett, who’ll be in play for the starting job. The Pitt product was widely dubbed the most NFL-ready rookie quarterback of this weak class, and easily reachable financial incentives in Trubisky’s contract could become a factor in which player is under center come Week 1.
Neither is particularly of utility in fantasy leagues, although the weaponry available would make Trubisky an intriguing matchup play in cavernous formats, best-ball leagues, and the occasional DFS contest. Pickett probably takes over at some point in the year if he somehow doesn’t beat out Trubisky in camp, but the rookie is less reliable than the veteran in 2022.
Nobody had more combined offensive touches in the regular season than Najee Harris, who finished with 307 carries, 74 receptions, 1,667 total yards and 10 touchdowns. There weren’t a ton of big plays along the way as the then-rookie averaged just 3.9 YPC — making him one of only three RBs among the NFL’s top 25 in rushing to average fewer than 4.0 yards per carry.
That kind of workload creates some long-term concern, but at 24 and entering just his second year in the NFL, it feels too early to worry about his durability for the upcoming season. Harris figures to be a focal point of the offense once again, and he is a midrange RB1.
Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland Jr. will compete for the No. 2 spot in July. Snell was the backup last year but showed zero explosiveness, failing to gain more than nine yards on any of his 36 carries. McFarland, a fourth-round selection in 2020, has yet to make his mark at the highest level. He has collegiate ties to the OC, and we could see a smattering of manufactured touches to utilize McFarland in space as a means of giving Harris a break.
One has to figure the extreme short-passing game the Steelers used with Roethlisberger will be overhauled this offseason, though into what exactly remains to be seen. Whatever it is, expect Diontae Johnson to get his. The fourth-year pro climbed to the top spot last year and showed he could be effective working all over the field. One need only look back on Trubisky’s time in Chicago with current Los Angeles Rams WR Allen Robinson to see he’s capable of getting the ball to his top guy. Should it be Pickett, it’s not uncommon for rookie quarterbacks to overly rely on the primary read. Pencil Johnson in as a strong WR2.
Chase Claypool didn’t have a bad second season, but he didn’t take another step, basically duplicating his rookie numbers minus a major regression in touchdowns. That seems to be a trend. After scoring 10 TDs in his first 10 games, Claypool has managed just three scores in his last 21. Until that starts to even out, or his usage ticks up, Claypool is best viewed as a high-end flex.
With the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Ray-Ray McCloud gone, rookies George Pickens and Calvin Austin will get their chance to carve out roles as well, though neither is worth drafting in single-year formats. Austin probably takes over for Johnson in 2023 if the team cannot reach an extension. Regardless, neither will see enough passes this season without injury assistance.
Pat Freiermuth (60-497-7) was another excellent find in last year’s draft, and his immediate production made Eric Ebron expendable. Despite a strong debut campaign, there are two reasons for concern: 1) Freiermuth suffered a pair of concussions late in the year, which is worrisome so early in his career, and 2) there’s no guarantee he’ll be a favorite of Trubisky the way he was for Big Ben. In some regards, Pickett starting should work in Freiermuth’s favor. Rookie quarterbacks tend to rely on the position as a safety outlet. Either way, Freiermuth is a borderline top-10 fantasy tight end.
Much of the Trubisky narrative surrounds the quarterbacks he was selected before. No, he’ll never be Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes. That doesn’t mean he’s irredeemable. Trubisky had some nice stretches in Chicago, and he’s a better athlete than many realize. In the right system, he could have moderate dual-threat potential. Here’s the “but” … it is unreasonable to draft him in conventional formats, so he’s more of a superflex QB2, DFS flier, or best-ball gamble. Even then, we all know Trubisky is on a short leash, and that assumes he even wins the job.
Ask yourself this: If Claypool hadn’t scored all those early touchdowns, would his name carry much weight for fantasy owners? As noted, he has managed just three TDs in his last 21 games; if one of the rookies delivers early on or either of the new QBs doesn’t develop chemistry with him, Claypool’s role could be further diminished.
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